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Joong-Bae Ahn Sera Jo Myoung-Seok Suh Dong-Hyun Cha Dong-Kyou Lee Song-You Hong Seung-Ki Min Seong-Chan Park Hyun-Suk Kang Kyo-Moon Shim 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(2):223-236
The change of extreme precipitation is assessed with the HadGEM2-AO - 5 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) chain, which is a national downscaling project undertaken cooperatively by several South Korean institutes aimed at producing regional climate change projection with fine resolution (12.5 km) around the Korean Peninsula. The downscaling domain, resolution and lateral boundary conditions are held the same among the 5 RCMs to minimize the uncertainties from model configuration. Climatological changes reveal a statistically significant increase in the mid-21st century (2046- 2070; Fut1) and the late-21st century (2076-2100; Fut2) precipitation properties related to extreme precipitation, such as precipitation intensity and average of upper 5 percentile daily precipitation, with respect to the reference period (1981-2005). Changes depending on the intensity categories also present a clear trend of decreasing light rain and increasing heavy rain. In accordance with these results, the change of 1-in-50 year maximum precipitation intensity over South Korea is estimated by the GEV method. The result suggests that the 50-year return value (RV50) will change from -32.69% to 72.7% and from -31.6% to 96.32% in Fut1 and from -31.97% to 86.25% and from -19.45% to 134.88% in Fut2 under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, at the 90% confidence level. This study suggests that multi-RCMs can be used to reduce uncertainties and assess the future change of extreme precipitation more reliably. Moreover, future projection of the regional climate change contains uncertainties evoked from not only driving GCM but also RCM. Therefore, multi-GCM and multi-RCM studies are expected to provide more robust projection. 相似文献
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Myoung-Seok Suh Seok-Geun Oh Young-Suk Lee Joong-Bae Ahn Dong-Hyun Cha Dong-Kyou Lee Song-You Hong Seung-Ki Min Seong-Chan Park Hyun-Suk Kang 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(2):151-169
We projected surface air temperature changes over South Korea during the mid (2026-2050) and late (2076-2100) 21st century against the current climate (1981-2005) using the simulation results from five regional climate models (RCMs) driven by Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, coupled with the Atmosphere- Ocean (HadGEM2-AO), and two ensemble methods (equal weighted averaging, weighted averaging based on Taylor’s skill score) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. In general, the five RCM ensembles captured the spatial and seasonal variations, and probability distribution of temperature over South Korea reasonably compared to observation. They particularly showed a good performance in simulating annual temperature range compared to HadGEM2-AO. In future simulation, the temperature over South Korea will increase significantly for all scenarios and seasons. Stronger warming trends are projected in the late 21st century than in the mid-21st century, in particular under RCP8.5. The five RCM ensembles projected that temperature changes for the mid/late 21st century relative to the current climate are +1.54°C/+1.92°C for RCP2.6, +1.68°C/+2.91°C for RCP4.5, +1.17°C/+3.11°C for RCP6.0, and +1.75°C/+4.73°C for RCP8.5. Compared to the temperature projection of HadGEM2-AO, the five RCM ensembles projected smaller increases in temperature for all RCP scenarios and seasons. The inter-RCM spread is proportional to the simulation period (i.e., larger in the late-21st than mid-21st century) and significantly greater (about four times) in winter than summer for all RCP scenarios. Therefore, the modeled predictions of temperature increases during the late 21st century, particularly for winter temperatures, should be used with caution. 相似文献
98.
Sang-konKim Maeng-eonPark Seung-gyunBaek Kyu-youlSung Sun-okKim Hee-yulPark 《东北亚地学研究》2004,7(2):125-135
Chemical composition, Raman microspectrometry, and Fourier transform infrared (FT-1R) and SEM-CL (Cathodluminescence) analyses are carried out for Tanzania and Madagascar garnets for locality identification. Inclusion study was sustained after electron probe microanalysis (EPMA). Needle-like illmenites, apatites and zircons were the most common solid inclusions in Tanzania garnets. Madagascar garnets revealed rutile needles and apatites were also observed, but differences in size, shape and distribution patterns were noticed compared to Tanzania garnets. Tanzania garnets exhibited all types of observable fluid inclusions such as ““ fingerprint““ pattern, called Type Ⅰ-A, liquid-only (L) single phase fluid inclusion, called Type Ⅰ-B and Type Ⅱ-A ( L S), Type Ⅱ-B ( L V) and Type Ⅲ-A (L Sylvite even if all examined garnets from three localities retained ““fingerprint““ features, so called, partially healed fractures, in common. Chemical composition, Raman microspectrometry and Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) analysis taken turned out to be useful methods for the purpose of this study. Using consequences of SEM-CL and inclusion study, accordingly, the locality identification of gem-quality garnets is capable of being available in further application for other kinds of gemstones. 相似文献
99.
The Menderes Massif, in western Anatolia, has been described as a lithological succession comprising a basal ‘Precambrian gneissic core of sedimentary origin’ overlain in sequence by ‘Palaeozoic schist’ and ‘Mesozoic-Cenozoic marble’ forming the envelope. The boundary between core and schist envelope was interpreted as a major unconformity, the ‘Supra-Pan-African unconformity’. By contrast, our field observations and geochemical data show that around the southern side of Besparmak Mountain, north of Selimiye (Milas), the protoliths of highly deformed, mylonitized augen gneisses are granitoid rocks intrusive into the adjacent Palaeozoic metasedimentary schists. The field relationships indicate the age of intrusion to be younger than late Permian and there is no evidence for the existence of either an exposed Precambrian basement or the ‘Supra-Pan-African unconformity’ in this sector of the Menderes Massif. 相似文献
100.
R.G. Park 《Precambrian Research》1981,14(1):31-47
The later Archaean history of the granite-greenstone terrain of the western Superior Province in Manitoba was marked by the development of numerous shear zones with varying orientation and sense of movement. Data are presented on the orientation, width and displacement of 15 shear zones in a 61,000 km2 area east of Lake Winnipeg. By making simplifying assumptions, estimates are made of the orientation of the maximum compressive stress (N-S) and the bulk shortening strain caused by the shear zone displacements (39–45%).The estimates of shear zone displacement strain are compared with estimates of bulk strain obtained by analysing the granite-greenstone shape pattern over a large area of the western Superior Province, again making simplifying assumptions. As expected, the contribution of the more ductile greenstones to the bulk strain is proportionately greater. A value of around 40% is indicated for the bulk shortening strain.Estimates of mean shear strain obtained both from shear zone displacement/width measurements and from strain profiles show a wide range in values from around 10 in some narrow zones to around 1 in very wide zones. 相似文献